A pipeline approach of foreign aid absorptive capacity : analyzing disbursement delays in Africa through an ARDL panel data model
نویسنده
چکیده
This paper analyzes the delays and therefore the unpredictability of foreign aid in Africa. As many African countries are dependant to foreign aid, it’s important to understand to what extent aid delays matters for the absorptive capacity and therefore influences aid effectiveness. As the aid literature on absorptive capacity was mainly focused on dutch disease, decreasing returns and institutional weakness, we foster our interest on the disbursement constraints what we call pipeline approach. According to this approach, in short run, the disbursement constraints lead to huge delays of aid disbursements and weak rates of aid disbursement with regard to commitments. We explore the different factors likely to explain the aid delays, building a new analytical framework and using the concept of programmable aid. Some stylised facts on aid delays are presented for African recipients as well as for bilateral and multilateral donors, reflecting the existence of specificities for these actors. Theses findings are supported by the econometric estimations using a dynamic econometric model, an ARDL for a panel of 52 African countries during the period of 19752004. We find disbursement constraints mainly at short run level, while the main donor’s specific factors seem to be the selectivity and the degree of aid fragmentation. Aid lags are also influenced by economic performance and governance quality of recipients and the share of grants in aid modalities. Bilateral donors are found to under-perform compared to multilateral donors in terms of the rhythm of aid disbursement.
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